Make a Big Kill Every Once in a While

Apex predators don’t succeed all that often. Tigers succeed only 5% of the time; Polar bears 10% and Leopards 14%. All they need is one big kill every once in a while to stay atop the food chain.

Tigers, lions and other predators know their game. They balance persistence and knowing when to quit; hunting only for the home-run and conserving energy.

You don’t see lions hunting rabbits and other small vermin. It’s a waste of their time. They’re OK with not eating every day, but when a big opportunity presents itself, they invest heavily to make the kill. And even then they succeed only 30% of the time. The king of the jungle fails 7 out of 10 times. Think about that.

Hunting Success Rates of Apex Predators

  • Chimpanzees 50%
  • Tigers 5%
  • Polar Bears 10%
  • Leopards 14%
  • Lions (as a pack) 30%
  • Wolves 14%
  • Cheetahs 58%
  • Peregrine Falcons 47%

Links:

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20151222-which-animal-is-the-deadliest-hunter-on-the-planet

http://www.discoverwildlife.com/animals/hunting-success-rates-how-predators-compare

Investing is no different. Trend traders lay low most of the time; expending little energy while waiting for a big trend to emerge. Most of the time, like lions and other predators, we come up empty. Frustration occurs, but it doesn’t distract us from the process. You keep at it and eventually you make a big kill.

Each market can go many months or years without producing a big trend. When this occurs, you have to sit tight and try not to lose much money. Make small bets when it looks like a trend is burgeoning, but cut it quickly if it doesn’t materialize.

Our job is to stay in business and keep our eyes open for opportunity. The markets trend when they’re ready to trend. Like the tides, we cannot control them. Best to watch as many markets as possible and have the wherewithal to pounce when they start moving.

Don’t expect big trends to occur all that often, but as we learn from nature, we can thrive with making a big kill a small percentage of the time.

Examples of Markets Oscillating Between Trending and Quiet Periods

U.S. Dollar Index

WTI Crude Oil

Cocoa

Disclosure

Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results
There is always a risk of loss in futures trading.

This communication is for information purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial product, an official confirmation of any transaction, or as an official statement of Melissinos Trading LLC. All information is subject to change without notice.

These charts show examples of trends. Inclusion of a chart as a trend example does not imply any kind of recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out.

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